Stanford researchers just released a study called “Canaries in the Coal Mine.” The Wall Street Journal covered it this week.
The numbers: Entry-level software engineering hiring at major tech companies dropped more than 50 percent over three years. Salesforce hired zero new engineers in fiscal year 2026. Amazon eliminated more than 14,000 corporate roles in late 2025, concentrated in mid-level and execution positions. A leading tech recruiter told the Journal that a single experienced engineer now delivers what an entire team once did.
That’s a significant data point. But here’s what I think gets missed in most reads of this story.
Software is just first. It’s the most AI-native profession — structured, documented, and easy to evaluate as right or wrong. Legal research, financial analysis, accounting, and marketing strategy all share the same underlying vulnerability. AI absorbs codifiable tasks first, the junior pathway shrinks, and what’s left requires accumulated judgment that can only come from depth of experience.
Stanford’s data makes this visible: software developer employment for workers aged 22 to 25 fell nearly 20 percent from its late 2022 peak, while workers in the same fields aged 30 and over grew 6 to 12 percent. Experience is compounding in value. Entry-level availability is collapsing.
Microsoft and Amazon were explicit about this in their own restructurings. AI is handling more routine work. What remains demands more judgment, not less.
The question for every leader, regardless of industry: if AI eliminates the entry-level pathway in your function, how does your organization develop the judgment it’ll need at the mid and senior levels five years from now?
Three things worth acting on:
- Start by creating stretch experiences. Early-career employees need exposure to ambiguous, judgment-heavy situations before they’re officially ready. Involve them in complex decisions now — the learning that builds judgment happens in the room.
- Build coaching into the pipeline next. The fastest way to close the experience gap is structured reflection alongside someone who’s already navigated the hard calls. Pair junior talent with senior leaders who can debrief decisions, not just assign tasks.
- Finally, measure judgment growth. Define what strategic thinking and pattern recognition actually look like in your context. Build competency frameworks around them. Track it intentionally — the way you’d track any other business metric.
AI commoditizes technical skills. What compounds in value now is harder to hire, harder to train on a schedule, and impossible to download.
This Week
Identify one or two people on your team who are at risk of being disrupted by AI in their current roles. Give them exposure to complex, judgment-requiring decisions during the week and see how they do. They’ll appreciate it, and you might just identify your next strategic thinker in the process that fills your future talent gap.
Who on your team do you think is ready to be pushed — and are you giving them the chance?